Q1 2024: What the Sales Numbers Reveal About the Sarasota Real Estate Market

The buzz in the real estate industry is that the current market is just like it was back in 2019. I have to believe that the only statistic that’s relevant is that the number of properties sold in the first quarter is about equivalent to 2019. We’ll get to that a little bit later.

For some context, Sarasota has evolved A LOT in the last five years:

  • Let’s start with the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. Five years or so ago, the airport had about 6 airlines and 11 nonstop destinations. Now in 2024, there are 11 airlines and over 55 nonstop destinations.
  • Since the pandemic, multiple paradigms have shifted. In Sarasota in particular, we have two luxury hotel brands under construction that didn’t even exist five years ago in The Rosewood and The St. Regis Residences.
  • Bitcoin is trading 10 times higher than it was back then. Electric Vehicle sales make up about 10% of the entire car market which is really apparent on our roads here.

The community of Sarasota is moving forward. There are numerous more points to illustrate how dynamic our local real estate market is. For those who have a deeper curiosity I invite you to schedule a chat. My team and I are up close on a daily basis with the myriad of factors that exert pressure on our market and are in constant change. So, I would assert that Sarasota is a completely different market than it was five years ago.

The Sarasota Real Estate Sales Results for Q1 2024

  • Number of properties that sold in Q1 (January, February, and March) increased slightly over the same period in 2023, about ½ of a percent.
  • However, sales volume increased by 8% indicating a lift from what has occurred in the luxury market and in the most desirable properties.
  • Luxury Market (properties listed for a $1,500,000 or more.) saw a 14% increase from the same period a year ago.
  • The Ultra Luxury Market saw an increase. This quarter alone, there are four sales over $10,000,000. The same period a year ago, zero.

We have about 5,700 properties in inventory throughout Sarasota County. We’re beginning to see some equilibrium as that pendulum is working to find its middle ground between buyers and sellers. In some segments of our market buyers have more inventory to work with. However, options continue to be limited particularly for the most desirable locations. So increases in inventory have not lead to price decreases everywhere.

So What’s Fueling Demand Here in Sarasota?

I think there’s a huge validation in the luxury market. Those buyers are spending large sums of money investing in Sarasota real estate as they are confident the value their purchases bring. There’s been virtually no talk of a recession. The Dow has been up 18% from this period a year ago, and if you have a heavily weighted tech portfolio, it’s up even larger.

So, today’s buyer has a lot more money to spend, and the reality is that the quality of life in Sarasota is unparalleled. Whether it’s the beaches, the waterfront, the cultural amenities, the arts, being able to be outside 12 months a year — we have a very, very special lifestyle here in the Sarasota area.

Whether you’re looking to make a purchase here this spring, or your time horizon is two to three years out, it’s never too early to start. Nothing is more valuable than aligning yourself with an expert to guide you on the many nuances that influence the behavior of today’s buyers and sellers. We invest in the long term relationship with our clients.

We want to ensure you are informed and educated about living here in Sarasota. My team and I will be with you every step of the way, and we look forward to hearing from you soon. Call me @ 941.587.0740.

Spring 2024 Construction Update: Rosewood Residences Lido Key

As you can see in this video, construction has begun on this prime 3.5 acre beachfront for the Rosewood Residences Lido Key. A significant part of the structure is now coming out of the ground and the site is buzzing with cranes and workers. Now that construction has begun and the progress is clearly visible, the option to live here is more tangible and we are engaging in with more buyers who have expressed interest.

The Rosewood Hotel and Resorts brand is recognized for around the world for curating the most inspired hospitality and service available anywhere, and here on Lido Key we will have the first ever property that will be exclusively residential.

In the winter of 2026, those seeking a sense of place and a super refined resort-style living experience will have the opportunity to move into these 65 boutique residences here on the Gulf of Mexico. There are going to be four different floor plans, ranging from $7.5 million to $15.5 million dollars. This property is going to be absolutely exquisite.

For a more in-depth look into this project, we created this “Exclusive Tour and Story Behind the Rosewood Residences Lido Key.

If you would like a private orientation, I invite you to set up a video call with me or call me @ 941.587.0740.

Construction Update: St. Regis Residences & Resort Longboat Key

Today we are taking you on location to show you the progress at the construction site of the St. Regis Residences and Resort Longboat Key.

There are presently 62 St. Regis Luxury Hotels/Resorts in the world and only 20 properties that offer the St. Regis Residences. Among these great locations are Dubai, Bermuda, and of course, the landmark establishment in New York City.

In just a couple of months, walk-throughs will begin for the 69 new St. Regis Residences Longboat Key owners, and the first closings will be in June of this year. The 166 room hotel will be open sometime this July 2024.

What’s really exciting is that the goal for Winfred Von Workum, the new general manager, is that this St. Regis Resort here on Longboat Key be the first Forbes FIVE STAR resort on the entire west coast of Florida!! Winfred has previously been the general manager for the St. Regis Bal Harbour, the St. Regis Washington, D.C., and the Ritz-Carlton New York. 

Just to provide a glimpse of the experience residents and guest will have here every day:

  • 4-acre saltwater lagoon, complete with tropical fish and stingrays and two resident Galapagos tortoises.
  • The resort’s spa is comprehensive and includes a hair salon, nail salon, massages and relaxation areas.
  • A more upscale restaurant will focus on steaks and seafood, whereas a more “approachable” Italian restaurant for families.
  • A bar on the second floor is positioned perfectly to watch the sunset.
  • The St. Regis will pay homage to the former Monkey Room Bar (beloved community spot when this property used to be The Colony) in the way of a tiki bar near the beach.

The residences of the St Regis have been sold out for years, but as we know from previous new construction opportunities, a small number of unit owner may choose not to move forward once the closings happen. This may provide an opportunity for new buyers to come in and own an exclusive piece of this paradise here on Longboat Key.

For more information on how you might be one of those lucky few, please give me a call @ 941.587.0740.

The State of the Sarasota Real Estate Market in 2024

We filmed this video newsletter on Sarasota’s Bayfront in front of “Embracing Our Differences,” a curated art show with over 16,000 submissions, and the winners surround me.

This is my 15th year of doing quarterly Sarasota real estate market reports and monthly newsletters. My January update has been one of the most sought after as I recap the previous year and provide context for how the market may perform in the year in front of us. So let’s jump right into it.

The Year in Review

  • In 2023, we saw sales decrease by 5.5% compared to 2022.
  • However, in the fourth quarter of 2023, we actually saw sales increase by 13% over the same period a year ago.
  • The luxury market (properties more than $1.5 million) has seen an increase of 50% in this same period. It currently makes up about 7% of our market.
  • There were 7 sales over $6M in Q4 of 2023, which is the same from the period a year ago.

The fourth quarter increase in the luxury market is a function of the completion of the Bayso condominiums, our newest downtown community with 149 residences. The next community on the horizon to be completed will be the St. Regis Residences on Longboat Key. That will open up in the summer of 2024- just about six months from now.

So what’s going on in Sarasota?

Well, there has been a tremendous investment in the community on the south, west and north corridors, and this is increasing the vibe and livability here in our community.

  1. Just to the south of Downtown, we have seen about $100 million being invested in Selby Gardens. They’ve just completed phase one of three phases.
  2. On the west along our bayfront, we’re seeing The Bay Sarasota come to life. They will have about $300 to $600 million invested once all phases are complete. They have already celebrated the one year anniversary of the opening of phase one, and the free community programming has been absolutely transformative.
  3. On the north part of town, the Ringling College of Art and Design inches closer to being the preeminent art and design school in the entire world. They are closing in on a $175 million raise.

Looking forward to 2024 Real Estate Market

As we move into this election year, a lot of people are asking me, “How are this year’s elections going to impact our real estate market?” I went back multiple election cycles over the last 15 years to analyze this, and the fact is that there is no statistically significant increase or decrease of sales during an election year.

The past decade has seen a lot of ups and downs, ebbs and flows in the real estate market. To provide some greater context: 2022 and 2023 have been 15% below the average sales from 2014 to 2018. Our three strongest years over the last decade have been 2019, 2020, and 2021.

I expect as we move forward into 2024, we’re going to see a bit of a rebound over the past two years. The lifestyle in Sarasota has never been better with the increase of amenities, re-dedication to our infrastructure, and an incredible vibe that’s going on in our community.

A Window of Opportunity for Buyers

In some areas of our market, buyers have significantly more choices at this moment than they did through the pandemic. I feel we are in a window where they have some strong negotiating power. If you would like to have a buyer consult to discuss exactly how I have come to this conclusion and how we can position you to find a great value I invite you to set up a 20 minute video consultation.

The Co-Primary Residence Mindset: Sarasota and (insert your city here)

Before I discuss the concept of co-primary residences, let me make two points about the current real estate market:

  • Seller Palooza. First, it’s a little bit like a seller palooza going on here in Sarasota right now as a lot of real and wannabe sellers are bringing their property to market. This could create choices and opportunity for buyers in some communities.
  • ADOM. Another concept that I want to talk about is Active Days on Market (ADOM). I think a little bit too much stock is being placed in this statistic. At a certain number some are thinking, “Oh, that’s too many days on market.” However, recently we were participating in two transactions that had multiple offer situations. One property was on the market for 183 days, and the other 143 days.

Live Fluidly Between Your Favorite City Pairs

Map of SRQ non stop flights

Historically we have had clients consider one home their primary residence and another their secondary. I want to encourage a new framework that I see working well for those who have independence and flexibility in their lives. It is the notion that you can live and move seamlessly between two places. Sarasota is now a year-round destination. Yes, you may want to spend more time here during the winter, but there are literally year-round events going on in our community and we are seeing more and more people enjoy having their clothes in both places and being able to fluidly go back and forth.

Lots of people come to Sarasota for many different reasons- the lifestyle, beaches, culture, arts, friends, et cetera. But do they really need to stay here on a fixed schedule? Sometimes family obligations, children or grandchildren, aging parents, work responsibilities, or other activities that bring them joy (such as skiing or hiking) don’t necessarily exist here.

Making the mental shift to idea of having co-primary residences makes sense because then you can easily stay connected throughout the year with friends, family, lifestyle, and culture that brings you joy in both locales.
We are seeing a lot more of this here- whether it’s Sarasota & London, Sarasota & Paris, Sarasota & Colorado (for those that like skiing), Sarasota & Austin (for people that run tech companies), and Sarasota & New England.

SRQ Airport Adding New Non-Stops

This is going to increase in popularity even more in 2024 as our beloved airport will add some new nonstops. We are going to have a nonstop between Sarasota and Miami, which is going to open up Central and South America with ease. We’re going to have a new nonstop to California, and Allegiant Airlines is increasing their capacity by 40%.

I believe joy happens when you spend time in the places that you really love. So, as you go through this holiday season and you want to give yourselves a gift, I think making the mental shift to choosing your favorite city pairs is something to strongly consider.

When you want to align your real estate wants and needs with your inner joy, give me a call @ 941.587.0740.

Sarasota Real Estate Inventory on the RISE!

It is absolutely beautiful here in November in Sarasota with temperatures in the upper seventies, and you see incredibly sunny and bright skies — if that’s your thing!☀️

This month I want to talk about the increased inventory in the Sarasota real estate market. It should come as no surprise that the amount of inventory has been increasing over the past 16 to 18 months. While sellers are continuing to add new listings (for the typical reasons related to age, health or wanting to be near family) to the market at the same pace that we have experienced historically, we are seeing that buyers have not been purchasing as aggressively as they were 18 months ago.

There are about a third less sales each month over the last 18-month period which translates to rising inventory. This is good for our market. It creates a more balanced situation. It also puts a little downward pressure on pricing. There are now more options and an overall better buying experience since buyers can take a bit more time to assess their wants and needs and find the best match.

There is not an abundance of options, however. This past week, we were preparing for our buyer coming in for the holiday week, and out of the five properties we had identified to visit, three were no longer available. So, if people find something that they want, they need to still act quickly.

Here is a snapshot of the relative inventory levels today vs a year and a half ago in representative areas:

  • On Longboat Key there were about 60 for sale 16-18 months ago. Now there are just over 200.
  • On Siesta Key there were about 80ish properties for sale 18 months ago. Now there are around 250.

So clearly on the islands there are more options, but we can’t make a blanket statement about the entire real estate market:

We continue to see tremendous buyer interest in Sarasota, however buyers are contemplating the right timing for their purchase as they see price adjustments in our market.

If you want to be an astute seller or an astute buyer, let’s set up a video call in the next few days to develop a plan.

Storm Clouds in the Sarasota Real Estate Market – Q3 2023 Update

This month I am recording from South Lido Beach. October is the last month of turtle nesting season on our beaches here in Sarasota. Turtles came ashore here during July and August to create nests and lay their eggs. Those hatchlings are going back out to sea during this month of October.

It’s the end of the third quarter, July through September of 2023. Many of us always joke that we live in a bubble known as paradise here in Sarasota. However, the tumult of the world is always around us and sometimes we’re not impervious to it. How does this relate to our local real estate market?

I want to reflect back to 2021. Sales were very healthy that year on a month to month basis. In 2022, sales were actually lower compared to the corresponding month in 2021. This has happened once again here in 2023. Sales were lower month to month than in 2022 and 2021. Real estate sales this third quarter of 2023 have been kind of low and anemic- with one bright spot. That’s been the most recent month, September.

Let’s talk specifically about the numbers:

  • Sales were up 2.7% from the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. This was buoyed extremely well by September of 2023, whereas July and August were not as strong.
  • The luxury market (those properties selling for a 1.5M dollars or more) is basically flat. It represents about 5.5% of our market. It hasn’t changed since last year.
  • 81% of our total market is less than $750,000. This segment too is pretty flat. The most interesting thing is that despite all the changes, inventory has gone up about 10% in the last couple of months, and yet buyers in certain geographies and price point still can’t find anything.

What’s this going to do for our market going forward? I think it’s going to continue to be a little bit more tumultuous and it’s going to be challenging for both buyers and sellers over the next six months depending upon the geography and/or price point. What this means going forward is we expect to see storm clouds. Whether those clouds pass over us or we end up with an isolated or scattered thunderstorm, we just don’t know.

For a private consultation on your own specific situation, please give me a call @ 941.587.0740.

SARASOTA’S NEW CONSTRUCTION progress report – Summer Update!

The beaches, restaurants, and traffic have been quieter than usual here in Sarasota this summer as residents and visitors have spent their time in other places.

What you may have missed while you’ve been away- or while you’re still away. I think one of the most significant things that’s going on is the airport expansion. It’s going from 13 to 18 gates. That’s an expansion of about 40% and will enable the airport to have even more direct flights than the 55 currently going in and out of Sarasota.

What’s been happening on the real estate development front?

  • Golden Gate Point has five active construction projects. I want to touch on two. Evolution is back underway. They’ve switched builders and they’re moving towards completion hopefully late this year or maybe early next year. The Peninsula has come out of the ground. There are going to be 23 residences between two different buildings.
  • The Quay. Over at the Quay, which is our densest development, I want to highlight two projects in particular. The much anticipated Bayso is going to begin closings in October and they expect to finish those closings before the end of the year. Lennar has a multifamily project with 240 residences and 13,000 sq ft of retail going up. It is about halfway out of the ground with roughly 6 of its 12 story limit constructed.
  • The Rosemary District. Over in the Rosemary District, which is eclectic and full of little boutique opportunities, Villa Ballada — brought to you by the same developers who did Zahrada and Zahrada 2 — has come out of the ground. They expect to be finished about a year from now.

My predictions about the real estate market going into the fall?

I think there are going to be more options for buyers in certain neighborhoods. We are actually seeing inventory beginning to increase and that’s good for buyers. So those that are willing to pull the trigger may have more options and some negotiating power.

One final tidbit for foodies — I think it’s exciting that there are rumors that Sarasota is going to potentially get its first Michelin star restaurant in the not-too-distant future.
Sarasota continues to be at the top or near the top of multiple lists as “A Great Place to Live.” When you’re ready to discuss your sale or purchase please give me a call @ 941.587.0740.

Q2 2023: Sarasota’s “Contradictory” Real Estate Numbers

Now that we have half the year on the books, the question of how the Sarasota real market is fairing has become as ubiquitous as “How is the weather?”. The answer depends on your vantage point. The current market can seem confusing, and headlines are often contradictory.

Here are a few “on the ground” scenarios to illustrate this point:

  1. For buyers in the market that are looking at new construction in Sarasota within the $900,000 to $1,100,000 range, it can be very frustrating as there is a lot of competition with other buyers in this price range.
  2. For sellers who have properties that are listed for $6 million or more, it could be very frustrating because there’s a dearth of showings in that segment.
  3. And for the buyer looking for a waterfront condominium that’s brand new in downtown Sarasota, there are no choices.

So what is going on?

  • The second quarter of 2023 (April, May, and June) outperformed the third and fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, so we’ve had a bit of a market rebound. However, sales are down 10% from this same period a year ago.
  • The luxury market (the segment that is $1.5 million and up) is down 15% from the second quarter of 2022.
  • The ultra-luxury market (those properties listed for $6 million or more) is down 26% from the same period.

We have seen an uptick in inventory over the past several months- so there are more choices- but there are still not enough choices that are enabling buyers to purchase. They are simply not finding what they are looking for. In fact, new listings are down in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period a year ago, so there are fewer properties coming on the market, because where are you going to go once you leave Sarasota?

This is a great conundrum. There are people that want to buy, but most people don’t want to sell. So, overall, the market is quite healthy. We don’t have enough supply for the people that are looking to buy, but we have people that are willing to stay, and I think that’s great validation for our real estate market here in Sarasota.

If you are considering a real estate move this year, please give me a call @ 941.587.0740. I can translate for you how the market is doing for your specific situation and lay out a strategy for your personal goals- whether you are a buyer or seller on our market.

Top Headlines for Sarasota’s Real Estate Market

I want to share some of the messages that we’ve been receiving here in our local real estate market as we embark on our summer buying season.

Here are the top-level points we feel it important our clients know:

  1. Some Buyers are being outbid on properties. We have buyers who have held back on offers thinking that with time sellers may soften their pricing, however in at least two cases another offer came in higher than they were either prepared or thought necessary to pay.
  2. Sellers are receiving multiple offers. One of the most recent examples was a listing that was on its 58th day on the market and multiple buyers presented offers in same weekend.
  3. Median prices are up from the same time a year ago. For May 2023, they may be slightly lower than 2022, but it’s still too early to know.

The Inventory Paradox

Our real estate inventory is greater than it was a year ago. However, it is important to put this into context. It may or may not be true for any specific property or location. I took a look at some downtown condominiums each with their own distinct architectures, lifestyles, and amenities. In Sarabande there is nothing for sale. Tessera, nothing for sale. Marina Tower, just one residence. However, just down the street at The Mark there are six residences for sale. At Bay Plaza, there are eight residences for sale. And 1350 Main St has nine residences for sale.

Crossing the bridge to the Lido Beach, the Beach Residences managed by the Ritz-Carlton has one unit on the market. Same holds true for Orchid Beach Resort. And finally, L’Elegance has nothing for sale.

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that sellers need to be patient for the right buyer and buyers need to know that there’s competition in the market.

New Construction Update

The new construction segment is active as can be witnessed by the multiple construction sites under way. This space is unique as some buildings are sold out, some are taking contracts, others are still in the reservation phase. Occasionally sold-out projects have residences that come back to market since much can happen over the course of years that new owners have to wait. Case in point is one residence at the St. Regis on Longboat Key that recently returned to the market, though at a much higher price than when it previously sold.

Sarasota New Construction

Next up for completion in downtown Sarasota will be Kolter Urban’s 149 residence project at Quay Sarasota named BAYSO. The new owners will be taking occupancy beginning in the 3rd quarter of this year (2023). Most other new construction is still 18-24 months out. For those in the per-construction phase you can calculate taking occupancy about 24 months from ground-breaking.

When you are navigating buying or selling real estate assets it is critical to have a professional to help you through the process so that you are well-informed and protected.

No matter where you may be in the process, I welcome you to call 941.587.0740 for advice whenever you need.

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