Q3 2019: Sarasota and its Real Estate Numbers are CHANGING

Today I am standing on the Tony Saprito Pier in Sarasota, which was named after the former mayor and fruit grower. Behind me is the John Ringling Bridge- a project that took nearly a decade to be completed after intense and divisive debate. This is an apt backdrop to talk about the phenomena of change.

Most people don’t want to go through change, and they certainly don’t like the inconvenience or upheaval, and yet most are happy with the outcome (results). Just like with this bridge, which has in effect become a recreational destination for our community, after a short while it is hard to recollect what it was like previously.

How a Changing Sarasota is Affecting Our Market

For the 3rd quarter of 2019 (from July through September):

  • Sales increased from the 3rd quarter of 2018 by 12.4%.
  • Sales in the luxury segment of the market (those properties selling for $1M or more) increased by 19% from the same period a year ago.
  • The affordable segment of the market (those properties selling for $200k or less) decreased by 4.1%, It is about one quarter of the total market while 87% of our market is still less than $500k.
  • The distressed component of the market increased by 28%. It is still less than 3% of our total market. I researched this by zip codes, and in the most desirable areas such as Longboat Key and downtown Sarasota there was just one distressed sale in each locale and on Siesta Key there were only 4.
  • Finally, the median price for the 3rd quarter is up 2% from the same period a year ago. While some want price increases to be greater, I am an advocate of slow and steady appreciation.

There continues to be a lot written on the economy. Here in Florida, the director of economic forecasting for UCF predicts growth rates to average 3.6% from 2019-2022. Tourism numbers are up by 4% for the 1st half of 2019 to 68.9M.

I believe whole-heatedly in the changes that are occurring here. The upgrades to our community’s popular amenities, infrastructure and environment are not just important but absolutely critical to increase livability, accessibility, and real estate values. Just look behind me. We are much better off with this new bridge. There is always competition amongst cities to attract people and jobs, and Sarasota needs to continue to push to be the best version of herself.

SELLING OR BUYING? NEWER Properties are a Better Investment

For the last several months I’ve been talking about the bifurcation of old and new properties here in Sarasota. I want to specifically define “New” – in my mind, there are three categories in which we can classify something as new.

1) BRAND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

This refers to when a developer clear-cuts a piece of land and builds brand new homes. Location is secondary in this situation.

2) INFILL DEVELOPMENTS

In this scenario developers take an old property in a desirable location, completely demolish it, and build a new condominium or single-family home.

3) TOTAL REHABILITATION

When an individual takes a unit in older buildings (pre-2007), which are in the best locations and completely re-engineer the preexisting units to make them spectacular and competitive with the new inventory on the market. This would entail stripping everything back to the original outside walls and then creating a new floor plan and finishing’s that capture what today’s buyer wants.

NEWER PROPERTIES APPRECIATE AT GREATER RATE

I’ve been talking about the desirability of new properties- how they are selling for a premium and older properties are selling at a discount. Let’s use some numbers to specifically explore these phenomena. I took a look at properties that were built before 2000 after then after 2000. It’s not a perfect proxy, but it allows us to see that there’s a big differentiation.

  • OLDER THAN 2000. The median price of properties that were built before 2000 increased by 2% from 2018 to 2019.
  • NEWER THAN 2000. The newer properties, those built after 2000, increase by 3% in their median price over those two years.

There is a 50% increase in the value the market places on newer properties from 2018 to 2019.

More importantly, we see the median price of newer properties selling for about 24% more. A newer home would be selling for more than $1M, whereas an older home selling in the same location would be selling for less than $800,000. For the Buyer willing to do work they are able to create equity because the discount is greater than both the cost of the rework and market value once a reinvigoration is complete. To be clear this is more than just new counter-tops, cabinets and paint.

For sellers, don’t put off your deferred maintenance or updating your granite. If you’re planning on moving in the next one to three years, do the renovations or updates today and enjoy the benefits. Today’s buyers do not want to do any work. They don’t want to do any fixing up and they certainly don’t like granite that was in style from 10 to 15 years ago.

It may be difficult choosing where to draw the line regarding re-construction or knowing how MUCH of a discount should be taken.

For strategies and success in your next sale and/or purchase, give me a call @941-587-0740.

The Long and the Short of Sarasota’s Economic Health and Well-Being

August is the last month of summer here in the northern hemisphere. But summer in Sarasota has changed a lot. It’s no longer your parents’ your grandparents’ Sarasota. As we’ve been out and about we’ve seen bustling restaurants and sold-out theater.

Today I want to share my views on both the short term and long term view of the Sarasota real estate market. The reason that I want to do this is that sometimes we’re a little too short-sighted in our outlook. I feel that the Sarasota real estate market is very strong whether we’re taking a shorter view or a longer view and I’m going share why.

Beachplace Condos: The Price Paradox

There’s a certain bifurcation (a fancy word meaning a division into two directions) occurring in our market right now. Let’s use Beachplace — a condominium on Longboat Key- as an example.

Today’s consumer is looking for either value or opportunity. For value they want location, setting, and condition. They seek the best locations for their preferred lifestyle experience- such as being walkable to the amenities they like. They seek the best settings- i.e., open water views as opposed to a closed-in canal. They prefer something that’s brand new or incredibly renovated, as opposed to something that hasn’t been touched since the 1950s or the 1970s.

At Beachplace, which is 11 buildings, 336 units, and over 1,200 linear feet of gulf frontage- you have both things occurring in the same complex. Those units that have a terrific full gulf front view and are really updated are selling for a premium. To illustrate this point, there is one unit that was purchased, gutted, renovated, and completely furnished with full Gulf views. It was made HGTV worthy. This unit sold in 10 days, and it resold for even more money a year later after being on the market 1 day. On the flip side, properties that don’t have much view and/or are still in their original condition are selling at a discounted price. There are units there that are selling for lower prices then they had sold for 2-3 years ago.

Job and Population Growth Driving Sarasota’s Long Term Health

Now let’s look at the longer perspective on the Sarasota Real Estate market – by this I mean from now until 2030. McKinsey Global Institute just published a report that is a great validator to what I have been sharing about Sarasota’s long-term health. They wrote about job growth and they predict Sarasota to have 10-15% job growth between now and 2030. This is important because economic growth and real estate growth are fueled by two things: population growth and job opportunity.

As I have shared in previous newsletters, it is well documented that Florida in general and Sarasota, in particular, will be experiencing strong population growth.

Sarasota is a niche market. It is classified as a Silver City because of all the retirees that come here and make it their home. The largest job opportunities for Sarasota lie in four sectors: healthcare, STEM, the creative arts, and business services.

As our community supports these four sectors and provides job training for jobs of the future we will continue to have economic stability. In addition, as we improve our amenities (whether it’s green spaces or infrastructure) and help people get better educated through our consortium of five local schools, our community is poised for great growth well into the next decade.

Looking at Sarasota wholistically –- both the short term and long term view- I’m very excited about the future of Sarasota and her real estate market.

Have a terrific end of your summer!

Q2 2019: Sarasota Real Estate Numbers & HYPERlocalism

If you ask me how the Sarasota real estate market is right now I’d say it is healthy as indicated by the level of showing activity, sales, and a slow rise in median prices. However, the more germane question is what is happening in any given specific niche geography. It’s even more specific than the neighborhood. We have to get down to the exact street. To illustrate this point, I want to share two anecdotes from Lido Key and Bird Key — specifically focused on Blvd of the Presidents and North Warbler.

A recent sale on Blvd of the Presidents on Lido Key was listed initially for $4.99M then raised to $5.5M. The Seller tried three different Realtors and after 20 months, the property sold for almost $3,000,000 less than its high list price. The selling price was actually 25% less than its final list price.

What does this tell us?

First, the property was way overpriced, yet more importantly, it demonstrates the intelligence of the market and how it values different attributes unequally. This historic home — the former Van Wezel estate — has an incredible setting off of Otter Key, yet the location feels just a bit removed from Lido Beach and St. Armand’s Circle. There is no garage, a lack of landscaping, and the property is a bit disjointed. So even though the households tremendous historical significance, the market is speaking loudly to this Seller that having historical significance and a special setting was in the endless valuable than the condition of the house and the location.

As the Pelican flies, just 1,200 meters away on North Warbler Lane on Bird Key, there is a home that was built in the 1970s. Reminiscent of Brady Bunch architecture, this property went under contract in 4 days. This is 20 months faster than the previous example. There were multiple bidders and yet the property still sold for less than asking. The market is smarter than we give it credit for. Fortunately, the market is not emotional. The Bird Key property could be torn down or lived in, but being that it was on a cul-de-sac street, had a functional layout, ample square footage, a pretty view, and a neighborhood with a proven track record, the owner was able to choose an offer and move on with their life.

When we at Investments In Sarasota list properties, our philosophy continues to be to price it appropriately for showings and exposure. The market with all of its wisdom will show sellers the correct selling price. We ask that Sellers choose a real estate broker who will steward the sales process, give honest and constructive feedback, and most importantly let the market provide unfiltered information to be used in the decision-making process.

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Sarasota Real Estate Sales up in Q2

All of this to say once again that the market is doing well, there are many people searching, and properties are closing. Let’s take a look at Sarasota’s sales numbers for the Q2 of 2019.

  • Sales overall were up 3.4% from the same period a year ago.
  • Affordability continues to decrease as properties in this segment (under 200k) decreased by 10%.
  • Interestingly, distressed sales increased by 40% compared to the second quarter of 2018. Something we will watch in futures quarters, though a bit confusing since prices continue to rise. Distressed sales occur in 1 of every 40 properties sold.
  • The luxury market (properties listed for $1M or more) had an increase of 3.3% for the quarter.

In the most established and desired neighborhoods on the barrier islands and close to the art and culture centers in Downtown Sarasota, good properties are selling well — especially those that are new, are choice lots, or require little to no work. The others are selling once the prices are adjusted to the market.

The Secret Ingredient to BOOST Your Sarasota Real Estate Values

Today I’m sitting atop the Java Dog truck here at the Downtown Sarasota Farmers Market. This is one of the top-rated markets in the country — and it is open from 7 am to 1 pm every Saturday YEAR-ROUND! This is THE EPICENTER of Sarasota’s Local Scene — something I contend you should care about if you own
real estate in Sarasota
.

Why am I placing so much importance on local? And as I’ve been maintaining for years, part of the economic success of a community is based upon a diverse and high paying job source. Local is a very critical component. When you buy products or services from locally owned businesses, 52 cents of every dollar stays here locally as opposed to leaving the area — that’s 50% more!

There are two key factors illustrating how this works:

  1. Local money is recirculated. Money earned locally is also largely spent locally instead of being taken out of town.
  2. Money spent locally flows back into local hands 2 to 3½ times faster — a concept called the velocity of money.

When money touches more people locally it’s great for the local real estate economy. A study by American Express showed that property values are 17% higher in communities that support local businesses. Whether you’re going to your accountant, your lawyer, your banker, shopping at a local boutique, or choosing to eat at a locally owned restaurant, diverting that money locally has a huge impact on the local economy.

It’s critically important that people spend here in Sarasota and the local businesses — whether it’s in
Southside Village
, out on Longboat Key, or here in downtown Sarasota. During the Great Recession about ten years ago not all communities fared the same — in fact there were communities that did quite well. Our goal is to have the real estate values in Sarasota to continue on an upward trajectory. Sometimes a little bit faster, sometimes a little bit slower, but always maintaining that forward momentum.

Live Local. Eat Local. Play Local.

If you like to live where “Downtown is Downstairs” so that you can be totally immersed in the local food and art scene, check out the Mark, or Epoch, or the DeMarcay.

To get your personal tour of downtown Sarasota and the opportunities that abound give me a call @941.587.0740. for a personal walking tour.

Coming to Downtown Sarasota: $1 BILLION Investment in Arts & Culture

During the next 10 years or so, about $1 BILLION will be spent on Arts, Culture, and Lifestyle in and around downtown Sarasota. How will this affect the experience of buying and living in Downtown Sarasota?

Communities around the world are looking for ways to improve the quality of life for their residents and visitors for one simple reason — money. Individuals, retirees, families, and part-time residents want to live in a community that has great resources. The better the quality of life in a community the more people and businesses it will attract.

Sarasota is built on weather, culture, good schools, and life-long learning. I strongly believe that the $1B investment in our local community’s quality of life will only strengthen and increase the $81.8B of property values here in Sarasota.

In case you may not be familiar with the major capital campaigns that are either already complete or in progress they include:

The majority of the dollars flowing into these improvements is private money. As all this is going on, there are also plans for more roundabouts, more green spaces, more performances, etc. All this activity is generating exponentially more and advertising and publicity — which shines a brighter spotlight on our community.

My contention is that all this stimulates more engagement from visitors and residents, and also means more people are paying attention to what is going on and how it is being implemented, naturally raising the bar of expectation for planners and developers.

The Halo Effect: Small Community with First Tier Amenities

The improvements in our community also trigger increased revenues. Studies commissioned by the non-profit Americans for the Arts estimated that an average of $37.80 is spent beyond the cost of admission by each audience member for each performance attended. This number includes spending on hotels, parking, food, souvenirs, etc.

The formal venues in the greater downtown area amount to just under 21,000 seats within 10 minutes of Five Points — the intersection of Main and Pineapple — which we consider the epicenter of downtown Sarasota. (This does not include the dozens of restaurants & bars that regularly have live music and/or indoor-outdoor entertainment.) This translates to about $157M for 200 performances. This is a significant amount of money spent in Sarasota as part of attending a show or performance.

Among the EIGHT downtown hotels — five of which are new — there are now 540,930 room nights (1482 rooms per night) that are available. There are now TWENTY-NINE non-stop flights to and from Sarasota — up from just FOUR a short while ago.

Buying and Living Downtown

The investment downtown is attracting a more discerning resident who in turn requires better restaurants, cleaner and safer neighborhoods, and amenities surrounding the arts that are commensurate with the high-quality productions that are being presented. Developers are delivering residences at a variety of price points, however, all new construction condos are being built to a higher standard of design and finish.

The challenge is finding the right match for one specific buyer when you incorporate their specific criteria regarding size, view, urban sounds, walkability, etc. One of my concerns is that there is limited turnover in the heart of Downtown Sarasota, and therefore Buyers really need to be super in tune with their own needs and wants so they are prepared to move forward when the right match becomes available.

Interested in moving downtown?

Take a look at our comprehensive guide to New and Pre-Construction Downtown Condos now available on our website. Here you will find all the details on residential options as well as exactly how long it takes to walk to the downtown epicenter.

We counsel our clients to ensure they make the best Investment in Sarasota for them. This means both the investment in their health, happiness, and lifestyle goals, as well as one that makes good financial sense. We invite those who are keen on the urban downtown lifestyle to take a private walking tour of the opportunities in Downtown Sarasota. With the level of investment in the arts, the amenities are getting stronger, and with that, the return on investment is going to increase with time.

Give me a call @941.587.0740.

Q1 2019: Sarasota’s Real Estate Numbers Revealed

Sarasota has recently been named the #1 place to live in Florida according to US News and World Report (see updated 2022-2023 report). While this is the latest validation of Sarasota’s offerings to a wide range of consumers, more important is the consistency in the past few years of Sarasota being at or near the top of the many rankings and lifestyle metrics. As long as Sarasota continues to invest in itself by raising its own bar, so too will people come to make Sarasota their home for at least part of the year.

The Sarasota real estate market continues to ebb and flow with activity — just like the surf on the beach. Though, as I stated earlier, there should be overall growth in our community well into the next decade. In the end, population growth, quality, and value drive demand. Pricing continues to increase but at a much slower rate. New construction continues to add inventory and competition for resales.

Here are the sales highlights Q1 of 2019:

  • Sales decreased by 8.1% from the 1st quarter of 2018.
  • The luxury market (those properties listed for $1M or more) decreased by 40% from a year ago.
  • The affordable segment (less than 200k) shrank by 14%.
  • The distressed marketplace is getting smaller. It is now just 3% of the total market. Three years ago it was greater than 10%. This is a sign of a healthier market.
  • Our market continues to be driven by value seekers. 83.5% of the total market is under $500,000.

Lido Beach

With good weather all winter, clear water for swimming, and lots of marine life visible, Sarasota has had a vibrant season. We even had the Lion King Mufasa visit Sarasota. Van Wezel had its most successful 3 weeks ever with this show in town.

Looking at the forest through the trees or perhaps more apropos seeing the Gulf through the estuary, canals, and waterways, Sarasota’s real estate future seems bright.

Buyers should not be wooed by the novelty of new alone. They need to fully understand the lifestyle that comes with the location they choose. In the next 5 years, there will be thousands more residents accessing our transportation corridors. If you are buying further east to be in new construction, travel times to the natural and cultural attractions of Downtown Sarasota and her islands will increase.

When you are ready for expert advice on your next real estate transaction give me a call: 941.587.0740.

Is Sarasota a Seller’s Market or Buyer’s Market?

Today I am standing at the Ritz Carlton Beach Club on Lido Key, a likely local destination for newlyweds.

In January of each year many economists, bankers, and advisors offer their prognostication for the year ahead. From the stock market to the real estate market, and sometimes even the farmer’s market. As usual, the predictions are all over the place and depend on a myriad of factors. With all the hype that the real estate market is changing, I want to assert that our local Sarasota market has not changed, the same dynamics have been in place for the past few years.

Interesting Factoid

In the late 18th century and early 19th century honeymoons became a thing after marriage. More than 200 years later, Sarasota, Florida has been ranked the #1 affordable honeymoon destination in the US by Livability.com.

The Affordable versus Mid to High-End Markets

Conventional wisdom suggests that a balanced real estate market is when there are six months of housing inventory. Less than six months of inventory typically signals a Seller’s market and rising prices, while more than six months is indicative of a Buyer’s market.

For the last several years, the real estate market in Sarasota has had both a Seller’s and a Buyer’s market simultaneously:

1. The Seller’s market has existed for years for properties for sale under $500k.

2. Once we move above $500k the market flips to favor Buyers.

Of course, there are always exceptions based on external factors such as the weather or stock market, and internal factors such as property condition and pricing. Pristine, hard to find properties can sell within days or weeks and those that are functionally obsolete and/or mispriced may stick around for a while.

The Flight to New Construction

One of the major pieces driving our market is a flight to new builds. While the most visible
new construction is in downtown Sarasota
, the vast majority of the growth is east of Interstate 75. In 2018, builders broke ground on 6,158 new single-family homes in our area. Sarasota is getting a far bigger footprint and this is having an irreversible impact on our community. For many, moving into a new single-family home now forces the tradeoff of having a brand new one versus being 30-45 minutes further away from Sarasota’s cultural district and beaches.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce projects Florida to grow from the world’s 17th to the world’s 10th largest economy, and the population to increase from 21.4M to 26M in the next 11 years.

With this forecast, we expect market demand to increase and prices on properties closer to the coast to continue on an upward trend. Meanwhile those inland, especially resales, we expect to stay flat. This seems to be especially true of ginormous communities. Today we learned of a new project out east with 4,500 homes. It is hard to see a path for much appreciation for the owner who buys new and then sells in three years. There is a ceiling to the appreciation based on the pricing of new product.

When you are ready for expert real estate advice on your next real estate transaction give me a call: 941.587.0740.

Sarasota’s Real Estate Market in 2018: Why 2019 is about Making SMART Choices!

Today I am standing on the construction site of the new Ritz Carlton Residences. We have clients that are looking forward to moving into this new bayfront tower when completed next year.

The most popular question posed to us in 2018 was “How is the market doing?” I need to stress the importance of focusing as specifically as possible on this question. For example, many are familiar with The VUE in Sarasota right behind me here, the condominium on the corner of US 41 and Gulfstream overlooking the bay front. Of the 141 residences in the building, just 2 are for sale. At the Ritz Carlton Beach Residences on Lido, there are 8 for sale of a total of 88 units. Directly down the street from the Lido Beach Ritz is Orchid Beach, where there is just one unit for sale out of 55 units, and that is at a price point of nearly $6M.

Real Estate Market Health Tied to Community Investment

Each neighborhood and condominium is different as it relates to “How’s the market?” For me, the bigger question is, “Are people investing in Sarasota?” I like to use philanthropy as one indicator. Let’s look at just two institutions – the Ringling Museum and Selby Gardens. Both have been trying to raise money and are succeeding.

For me, these and many other major contributions that our community is making to both its physical and cultural assets is one of the most significant validations of why an investment in Sarasota is wise.

2019 Real Estate Update

2018: The Real Estate Numbers in Review

How did the Sarasota real estate market do in 2018? Here’s the high level breakdown:

I think that the weakness in December was a result of the stock market drop earlier in the quarter. Closings are typically 30-60 days out. We saw Buyers second-guessing their purchase decisions – most notably in the luxury segment. The stock market continues to be volatile, and there will be months where its impact on the real estate market (in both directions) will be greater than others. In my mind, this is felt primarily at higher price points.

Timing When to Sell Your Property in 2019

Sellers need to be vigilant about the changes in inventory in their specific community or building. The better properties continue to be the quickest to sell. Sellers who do not have something special to offer in terms of a newly renovated or highly prized setting need to reset their pricing. We are not in a situation where the mediocre units in a building or neighborhood are able to ride the coattails of the truly extraordinary.

Feeling Overwhelmed with the Idea of Selling Your Property?

Life changes can be stressful. We handle the complexities, ensuring you the most elegant transition possible.

Let Us Help You List Your Property!

Buying? Equip Yourself to Make Smarter Choices

Buyers need to be aggressive when something special hits the market. There are still multiple bidder situations for the best properties. Buyers can also get lucky to buy the “least expensive house on the block” IF they are willing to do work. There is an opportunity. Though while Sarasota, in general, will see prices rise over time, the best locations, settings, and views will increase at a disproportionately higher rate.

As I said, our theme this year is about making smarter real estate choices. I think that those who choose to physically touch the sand themselves by experiencing the market directly rather than relying on the commentary of others will make the better decision.

Where do you get good information? Quite simply, by working with us. With our encyclopedic knowledge, five star expertise, and white-glove brokerage service. Let’s be smarter together.

Our TOP Local Non-Profit Recipients of 2018

A Heartfelt THANK YOU to our clients who trusted us with their business this year!

For every transaction we DONATE in your honor to one of the fantastic local organizations that are doing great work here in our community.

This year we were able to give back nearly FIVE THOUSAND dollars to THIRTEEN local non-profits.
I want to highlight just three:

Special Olympics of Sarasota

Special Olympics of Sarasota works with over 360 athletes on an annual basis in 14 different sports. They start with people at the age of 8 with intellectual disabilities and go all the way up.

The Brotherhood of Men

The Brotherhood of Men works with youth from Sarasota’s inner city to stop the vicious cycle of crime, drugs, and violence. They teach real life skills rehabbing homes that have been donated/abandoned. While they learn the technical skills of building, they also gain the practical skills of what it means to take on a project. The completed homes are then sold at a very affordable price to the families right in the same community, and proceeds go to fund the boys’ education.

The New College Foundation

The New College Foundation, which is part of New College, has raised over 100 million dollars bringing some of the best teachers as well as the brightest minds of the future that are going to address to make our globe a better place to live in the years to come.

logos of non-profit foundations

Thank you to our clients and to these organizations for making a difference here in Sarasota.

To all of you, have a wonderful Holiday Season.

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The Investments In Sarasota team has the most depth of experience, training, and education in the local real estate market. With our concierge-style service, we support and protect our client’s interests to levels far beyond the industry norm. The rave reviews from our clients say it best.

We Know More. We Care More. We Do More.

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